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Showing posts with label forex trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forex trading. Show all posts

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Forecasting Forex Trading

What is Forex or Foreign Exchange: It is the largest financial market in the world, with a volume of more than $1.5 trillion daily, dealing in currencies. Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location, no central exchange. It operates through an electronic network of banks, corporations and individuals trading one currency for another.
What about Forecasting: Predicting current and future market trends using existing data and facts. Analysts rely on technical and fundamental statistics to predict the directions of the economy, stock market and individual securities.

For those who trade using the Forex, or foreign currency exchange, knowing how to forecast the Forex can make the difference between trading successfully and losing money. When you begin learning about Forex trading, it is vital that you understand how to forecast the Forex trading market.
There are a few methods that are used when forecasting the Forex. Each system is used to understand how the Forex works and how the fluctuations in the market can affect traders and currency rates. The two methods that are most often used are called technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Both methods differ in their own ways, but each one can help the Forex trader understand how the rates are affecting the currency trade. Most of the time, experienced traders and brokers know each method and use a mixture of the two to trade on the Forex.
One method used in forecasting foreign currency exchange is called technical analysis. This method uses predictions by looking at trends in charts and graphs from past Forex market happenings. This system is based on solid events that have actually taken place in the Forex in the past. Many experience Forex traders and brokers rely on this system because it follows actual trends and can be quite reliable.
When looking at the technical analysis in the Forex, there are three basic principles that are used to make projections. These principles are based on the market action in relation to current events, trends in price movements and past Forex history. When the market action is looked at, everything from supply and demand, current politics and the current state of the market are taken into consideration. It is usually agreed that the actual price of the Forex is a direct reflection of current events.
The trends in price movement are another factor when using technical analysis. This means that there are patterns in the market behavior that have been known to be a contributing factor in the Forex. These patterns are usually repeating over time and can often be a consistent factor when forecasting the Forex market. Another factor that is taken into consideration when forecasting the Forex is history. There are definite patterns in the market and these are usually reliable factors. There are several charts that are taken into consideration when forecasting the Forex market using technical analysis. The five categories that are look at include indicators, number theory, waves, gaps and trends.

Most of these can be quite complicated for those who are inexperienced using the Forex. Most professional Forex brokers understand these charts and have the ability to offer their clients well-informed advice about Forex trading.
Another way that experienced brokers and traders in the Forex use to forecast the trends is called fundamental analysis. This method is used to forecast the future of price movements based on events that have not taken place yet. This can range from political changes, environmental factors and even natural disasters. Important factors and statistics are used to predict how it will affect supply and demand and the rates of the Forex. Most of the time, this method is not a reliable factor on its own, but is used in conjunction with technical analysis to form opinion about the changes in the Forex market.

For those interesting in being involved with Forex trading, a basic understanding of how the system works is essential. Understanding both forecasting systems and how they can predict the market trends will help Forex traders be successful with their trading. Most experienced traders and brokers involved with the Forex use a system of both technical and fundamental information when making decisions about the Forex market. When used together, they can provide the trader with invaluable information about where the currency trends are headed.
Always leave the forecasting to the pros unless you are playing the Forex as a hobby and don’t have a lot of money invested…Or like most people you will learn the hard way.

Forex Trading Methods

Forex Trading Methods - Day Trading
What is Day Trading?

Day trading refers to the practice of buying and selling financial instruments within the same trading day such that all positions are usually closed before the market close of the trading day. This can occur in any marketplace but is most common in the foreign exchange market and stock market. Many day traders are bank or investment firm employees working as specialists in equity investment and fund management. However, with the advent of electronic trading and margin trading, day trading has become increasingly popular among casual, at home traders. Day traders utilize high amounts of leverage and short-term trading strategies to capitalize on small price movements in highly liquid stocks or currencies. They serve two critical functions in the marketplace - keeping the markets running efficiently via arbitrage and providing much of the markets' liquidity.

Trade Frequency

Although collectively called day trading, there are many styles within day trading. A day trader is actively searching for potential trading setups (that is, any stock or other financial instruments that, in the judgment of the day trader, is in a tension state, ready to accelerate in price in either direction, that when traded well has a potential for a substantial profit). The number of trades you can make per day are almost unlimited, as are the profits and losses.

Some day traders focus on very short-term trading within the trading day, in which a trade may last just a few minutes. Day traders may buy and sell many times in a trading day and may receive trading fee discounts from their broker for this trading volume.

Some day traders focus only on price momentum, others on technical patterns, and still others on an unlimited number of strategies they feel can be profitable. Some day traders exit positions before the market closes to avoid any and all unmanageable risks - negative price gaps (differences between the previous day's close and the next day's open bull price) at the open - overnight price movements against the position held. Other traders believe they should let the profits run, so it is acceptable to stay with a position after the market closes.

Day traders sometimes borrow money to trade. This is called margin trading. Since margin interests are typically only charged on overnight balances, the trader pays no fees for the margin benefit, although they still run the risk of a Margin call.

Profit and Risks

Because of the nature of financial leverage and the rapid returns that are possible, day trading can be either extremely profitable or extremely unprofitable, and high-risk profile traders can generate either huge percentage returns or huge percentage losses. Some day traders manage to earn millions per year solely by day trading.

Because of the high profits (and losses) that day trading makes possible, these traders are sometimes portrayed as "bandits" or "gamblers" by other investors. Some individuals, however, make a consistent living from day trading.
Nevertheless day trading can be very risky, especially if any of the following is present while trading:

- trading a loser's game/system rather than a game that's at least winnable,
- trading with poor discipline (ignoring your own strategy, tactics, rules),
- inadequate risk capital with the accompanying stress of having to "survive",
- incompetent money management (i.e. executing trades poorly).

The common use of buying on margin (using borrowed funds) amplifies gains and losses, such that substantial losses or gains can occur in a very short period of time. In addition, brokers usually allow bigger margins for day traders. Where overnight margins required to hold a stock position are normally 50% of the stock's value, many brokers allow pattern day trader accounts to use levels as low as 25% for intraday purchases. This means a day trader with the legal minimum $25,000 in his or her account can buy $100,000 worth of stock during the day, as long as half of those positions are exited before the market close. Because of the high risk of margin use, and of other day trading practices, a day trader will often have to exit a losing position very quickly, in order to prevent a greater, unacceptable loss, or even a disastrous loss, much larger than his or her original investment, or even larger than his or her total assets.

The Controversy

The profit potential of day trading is perhaps one of the most debated (and misunderstood) topics on Wall Street. Countless internet scams have capitalized on this confusion by promising enormous returns in a short period. Meanwhile, the media continues to promote this type of trading as a get-rich-quick scheme that always works. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. There are those who engage in this type of trading without sufficient knowledge (or some even admittedly for a gambler's high). However, there are day traders who are able to make a successful living. Many professional money managers and financial advisors shy away from day trading, arguing that in most cases the reward does not justify the risk. They often cite that no day trader is world renown, whereas icons like Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch are a testament to the success that can be attained by more traditional forms of investing. Conversely, those who do day trade insist there is profit to be made. They say the success rate is inherently lower as a result of the higher complexity and necessary risk of day trading, combined with all the related scams. Overall, the street remains divided on the issue. At the very least they agree that day trading is not for everyone and involves significant risks. Moreover, it demands an in-depth understanding of how the markets work and various strategies for profiting in the short term.

Day Trading For A Living

There are two primary divisions of professional day traders: those who work alone and/or those who work for a larger institution. Most day traders who trade for a living work for a large institution. The fact is these people have access to things individual traders could only dream of: a direct line to a dealing desk, large amounts of capital and leverage, expensive analytical software and much more. These traders are typically the ones looking for easy profits that can be made from arbitrage opportunities and news events. The resources to which they have access allow them to capitalize on these less risky day trades before individual traders can react. Individual traders often manage other people's money or simply trade with their own. Few of them have access to a dealing desk; however, they often have strong ties to a brokerage (due to the large amounts of commission spending) and access to other resources. However, the limited scope of these resources prevents them from competing directly with institutional day traders, instead, they are forced to take more risks. Individual traders typically day trade using technical analysis and swing trades, combined with some leverage, to generate adequate profits on such small price movements in highly liquid stocks.

Day trading demands access to some of the most complex financial services and instruments in the marketplace. Day traders require:

1. Access to the Trading Desk

This is usually reserved for traders working for larger institutions or those who manage large amounts of money. The dealing desk provides these traders with instantaneous order executions, which can become important, especially when sharp price movements occur. For example, when an acquisition is announced, day traders looking at merger arbitrage can get their orders in before the rest of the market, taking advantage of the price differential.

2. Multiple News Sources

In the move "Wall Street" Gordon Gekko says that 'information is the most important commodity when trading’. News provides the majority of opportunities day traders capitalize on, so it is imperative to be the first to know when something big happens. The typical trading room contains access to the Dow Jones Newswire, televisions showing CNBC and other news agencies, as well as software that constantly analyzes various other news sources for important stories.

3. Analytical Software

Trading software is an expensive necessity for most day traders. Those who rely on technical indicators or swing trades rely more on software than news.
Combined these tools provide traders with an edge over the rest of the marketplace. It is easy to see why, without them, so many inexperienced traders lose money.

Techniques

The following are several basic strategies by which day traders attempt to make profits. Besides these, some day traders also use contrarian (reverse) strategies (more commonly seen in algorithmic trading) to trade specifically against irrational behavior from day traders using these approaches.

Some of these approaches require shorting stocks instead of buying them normally: the trader borrows stock from his broker and sells the borrowed stock, hoping that the price will fall and he will be able to purchase the shares at a lower price. There are several technical problems with short sales - the broker may not have shares to lend in a specific issue, some short sales can only be made if the stock price or bid has just risen (known as an "uptick"), and the broker can call for the return of its shares at any time. Some of these restrictions (in particular the uptick rule) don't apply to trades of stocks that are actually shares of an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

1. Trend Following

Trend following, a strategy used in all trading time-frames, assumes that financial instruments which have been rising steadily will continue to rise, and vice versa with falling. The trend follower buys an instrument which has been risin,g or short-sells a falling one, in the expectation that the trend will continue.

2. Contrarian Investing

Contrarian investing is a market timing strategy used in all trading time-frames. It assumes that financial instruments which have been rising steadily will reverse and start to fall, and vice versa with falling. The contrarian trader buys an instrument which has been falling, or short-sells a rising one, in the expectation that the trend will change.

3. Range Trading

Range trading is a trading style in which stocks are watched that have either been rising off a support price or falling off a resistance price. That is, every time the stock hits a high, it falls back to the low, and vice versa. Such a stock is said to be "trading in a range", which is the opposite of trending. The range trader therefore buys the stock at or near the low price, and sells (and possibly short sells) at the high. A related approach to range trading is looking for moves outside of an established range, called a breakout (price moves up) or a breakdown (price moves down), and assume that once the range has been broken prices will continue in that direction for some time.

4. Scalping

Scalping was originally referred to as spread trading. Scalping is a trading style where small price gaps created by the bid-ask spread are exploited. It normally involves establishing and liquidating a position quickly, usually within minutes or even seconds. Scalping highly liquid instruments for off the floor day traders involves taking quick profits while minimizing risk (loss exposure). It applies technical analysis concepts such as over/under-bought, support and resistance zones as well as trend line, trading channel to enter the market at key points and take quick profits from small moves. The basic idea of scalping is to exploit the inefficiency of the market when volatility increases and the trading range expands.

5. Rebate Trading

Rebate Trading is an equity trading style that uses ECN rebates as a primary source of profit and revenue, considering the payment structure of ECN paying per share. Traders maximize their returns by trading low priced, high volume stocks. This enables them to trade more shares and have more liquidity with a set amount of capital.

6. News Playing

News playing is primarily the realm of the day trader. The basic strategy is to buy a stock which has just announced good news, or short sell on bad news. Such events provide enormous volatility in a stock and therefore the greatest chance for quick profits (or losses). Determining whether news is "good" or "bad" must be determined by the price action of the stock, because the market reaction may not match the tone of the news itself. The most common cause for this is when rumors or estimates of the event (like those issued by market and industry analysts) were already circulated before the official release, and prices have already moved in anticipation---the news is already priced in the stock.

Conclusion

Although day trading has become somewhat of a controversial phenomenon, its prevalence is undeniable. Day traders, both institutional and individual, play an important role in the marketplace by keeping the markets efficient and liquid. Some argue that individuals should stay away from day trading, while others argue that it is a viable means to profit. And although it is becoming increasingly popular among inexperienced traders, it should be left primarily to those with the skills and resources needed to succeed.

The Importance of a Good Investment Program on Forex Trading

Have you ever thought about doing a trade globally? Some people might be a bit hesitant to do such a thing, but the opportunity is just waiting for you out there. You don’t actually have to travel outside your country, if that’s your concern. With the the Internet facility, you can in fact do forex trading on a global scale even in your own home, at work, and regardless of your location.

The FX market seems sophisticated, especially to new traders, and they find it rather complicated to go about the trade. But nothing is impossible once you’ve learned the trade. It is a worthwhile venture that you might want to consider even on a tight office schedule.
Being employed in a particular company may not provide you with all the money that you would need to finance your everyday living. Doing some extra work is often advisable specially in today’s times when money is difficult to find. Don´t worry anymore; the FX market is not far from your reach.
Identify your objective upon entering the FX market. This is the first step, so that you will stay focused in your endeavor. Once you’ve set up a goal, you have to do all that is necessary to reach that goal, but it should be in a reasonable manner.
In going through forex trading, you will need an investment program, and a good one. Don’t settle for anything less because a good program is essential to succeed in forex trading.
Most rookies commit the biggest mistake of their lives by availing fraudulent programs. The FX market is an enormous industry, and the fact is that there are many scams and con artists in the Internet, which actually provide useless materials for beginners. This often leads to frustrations of beginners because they’ve already failed even before they get to start the actual trade.
Find a legitimate forex investment program. Although it might require a bit more research, as well as a bit of your time, once you get what you’re looking for, you’re in a good position to start.
You don’t need to settle with expensive programs, nor with programs promising easy and quick profits with less the risk. You must be aware that though the FX market offers a lot of opportunities, it has also a lot of risks related. To become like the pros, you need to learn the forex trading system; and you have to be serious in learning it.
A good program is dynamic. It provides daily advice, manuals, DVD materials, computer disks, and other important forex trading stuffs or resources to turn you into a successful trader. Verify if their previous clients are satisfied with their services, and see if the company has built a good reputation in the business.
Professional traders conceive forex trading as a science, some thinks it’s an art; and to start the real trade, you must undergo a lot of practice. After all, practice makes a perfect trader. Demo accounts are surefire ways to learn and apply the different techniques used in the FX market. After you’ve dominated it, you can proceed to a mini account. Here you can do an actual trade but the risks are minimal. If you think you’re quite ready, then get a regular trading account. This is a highly effective step-by-step process because you get to learn a lot of things while you are practicing. Always maintain calmness, and act like the pros. You are about to make big money, one that you probably never imagined in your entire life.



Forex trading is done on a margin. Margin trading allows you to control more money than what you actually avail. For you to trade one million US dollars, you should have a security deposit worth ten thousand US dollars. This is a typical example with the rate at 1%.
The FX market expands around the globe, so you can trade twenty-four hours a day. If you choose to do margin trading, the spread rate is much lower compared to futures trading. The requirements are also very low.
Get acquainted with all the in and outs of forex trading. Trading globally implies a lot of risk; you must learn to overcome all these risks in order to earn big profits. Get a good forex trading program.

forex trading with an automated trading application

Enhance your forex trading with an automated trading application

One of the differences between the stock market and the forex market is the vast trading that occurs on the forex market. The foreign exchange market
(currency, forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. The forex trading market is a volatile industry. It is also a very lucrative market. However, to be a successful FX trader you need to educate yourself and have a long term plan. The lack of a forex trading strategy will guarantee failure. When starting out as a forex trader it is easy to abandon your plan or lack of a plan. A good forex trading education is a must.

Being well verse in the stock market will assist you with your forex trading. However, to enter into the foreign exchange market it is not necessary to have any prior trading experience. Some basic forex strategy systems are the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis
The fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but with the goal of making financial forecast. The data used in this analysis is; money policy, government policy and economic indicators. Some examples are GDP, exports and imports. The analysis of this data is for a specific business cycle.

Technical analysis
Forex technical analysis is a security analysis technique that claims the ability to forecast the future direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. In its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual price and volume behavior of the market or instrument. Technical analysts, sometimes called "chartists", may employ models and trading rules based on price and volume transformations.

Before you dive head first into the forex market open up a demo account. A forex demo account is a simulated account where you get virtual money of $25,000 to $1, 00,000. You get live quotes and bids that are part of real forex trade. Once you have master that are ready to take the plunge into the real thing open up a mini account.

A mini account is a great stepping-stone to the big leagues of FX. It allows you to open up an account where the leverage is higher in comparison to standard accounts. With a mini account you are dealing with mini contracts. You can open up a mini account with $250. When you are ready you can move onto a standard account

The forex market welcomes traders 24 hours a day. Forex market opens on Sunday 5 pm EST (10:00 pm GMT), closes on Friday 5 pm EST (10:00 pm GMT). No matter what region of the world you live in you can trade on the forex. As one market is opening, another countries market is closing. This is the continual method of how the forex market trading occurs. An example of forex trades in the western region of the world is USD/EUR and USD/GBP. An example of a forex trade in the Asian Economic regions or the world is JPY/USD and JPY/GBP.

Technology is a beautiful thing. To be involved in these markets you don't have to be awake for every different time zone. Automated analytical forex software applications allow you trade during the middle of the night while you sleep. There are many, different type of automated forex software applications on the market. Some of the most commonly used applications are forex killer, auto- pilot and forex-funnel to mention a few. These applications are used by; professionals and beginners alike with no experience whatsoever. These applications can assist you with a forex trading strategies

HOW TO MAKE MONEY IN FOREX?

What is Forex? Foreign Exchange popularly known as Forex or FX is a market for the buying and selling of different currencies and it is one of the fastest growing avenues to making money online. Transactions on the market are done through electronic means (internet and telephone) through an intermediary called the Forex broker. However, major trading 'centers' exists in London, New York, and Tokyo. Other trading 'centers' are: Singapore, Frankfurt, Geneva & Zurich, Paris and Hong Kong. Forex market is made up of different players: individual trader, institutional traders, banks, other financial institutions (investment firms, pension funds and hedge funds etc), and governments through their Central Banks. An estimated $3.5trillion worth of transactions are being traded daily on the market and it is opened 24/6. Forex market is an unregulated market, making it accessible to everyone and easily exited by its players. This makes it impossible to know the total number of players in the market at a particular time.

The history of Forex trading could be traced to the abandonment of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971, and the US Dollar would no longer be convertible into gold. This led to currencies of major industrialised nation becoming more freely, controlled mainly by the forces of supply and demand, which acted in the Foreign Exchange Market. Prices were floated daily, with volumes, speed and price volatility all increasing throughout the 1970's, giving rise to new financial instruments, market deregulation and trade liberalisation. In the 1980s, cross-borders capital movements accelerated with the advent of computers and technology, extending market continuum through Asian, European and American time zones. Turnover on foreign exchange rocketed from about $70 billion a day in the 1980s, to more than $3.5 trillion a day in 2008.

The avenue to make money on Forex market was created since the Bretton Woods Agreement was abandoned in 1971, allowing for changes in prices of currencies as dictated by the forces of demand and supply. Making money in Forex is as simple as buying a currency and holding it for few minutes, hours, days, weeks or months depending on your kind of trading and selling it when it has appreciated in value or vice-versa. This simple act could fetch you more than 100% of your capital in few minutes! But as simple as it sounds, it requires adherence to a golden rule which is our trading principle at forexseed.

The Golden rule of trading Forex successfully is taking position in the right direction, at the right price, with the right stop loss and the right target. Following this golden rule must, however, be with precision. The precision can only be achieved by formulating a profitable equation in which risk is minimised to the bearest minimum. Whether or not money will be made in Forex is not the issue because the market is huge and highly liquid; the real issue is how to reduce the risk on your trade because the market is very volatile. You will succeed trading Forex only if you appreciate this fact and inculcate it in your trading style.

As far as I am concern, the real opportunity to make money in Forex trading lies in directional trading. Most often than not, the market moves in a particular direction. A trader must be able to detect and follow the markets direction or trend. This could be a short-term trend or a long-term trend. A careful study of the chart especially higher time-frame chart will reveal the trend. It should be noted that a trend on a lower time-frame chart could be a mere consolidation on a higher time-frame chart. So, it is advisable to study the market from a holistic point of view.

As much as making the trend your friend is important, so is entering and exiting the market. The secret of successful Forex trading is in entering the market at the optimal point. The optimal point or price is where the trader could trade with the bearest minimum risk while at the same time maximising possible profit. A good trader would not enter the market to make just some pips without considering the risk at stake. A good Forex trader will never play around with his/her capital. He would only trade when the risk level is very low and profit margin high. I would recommend a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:3.

However, it is equally important for a trader to know when the party is over and exit the market. A trader should have a definite target in mind when opening a trade and this should be set in the trading platform. Many a time, the market may not get to your target; a good trader must be able to read the charts to envisage this and close the position. I have seen many promising trade go bad at the end of the day. It is necessary for a traders to manage their trades by using trailing stop loss to protect some of the gains made. This will help you to rank in some pips if the market goes against your trade. This is why the use of trailing stop loss is inevitable.

Having the right psychology is paramount in currency trading. You must appreciate the fact that absolute no one can influence the market. So you must develop the right mind set that you have done your own part by applying your strategy and the golden rule and it is left for the market to play out. No matter how good your trading strategy is, you can never by right every time. There will some bad trades. As a matter of fact, expect it - that is why you cannot trade without stop loss. This will help you to control your emotion. The most important thing is to develop a working trading strategy and adopt sound money management. You will definitely make a success trading the foreign exchange market.

In summary, the underlying principle of our trading success at forexseed has been revealed in this article. With our trading strategy, we simply trade in the right direction, at the right price with the right stop loss and target coupled with a sound money management policy. If you can apply this principle, you would have joined the 5% of successful Forex trader.